Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Sticking with Mitt

For Crikey's The Stump blog I produce a series of election indicators based on the major prediction markets. As Iowa Republicans gather to give their verdict on Republican presidential candidates the  Indicator illustrates the uncertainty about the likely outcome. While Mitt Romney is favoured with a 43.1% probability,  Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are also rated as significant chances.
There's always a temptation to take a modest profit on the eve of an event but this time I'm letting my investment on Romney ride in the hope that he will finish first as Pau, Santorum and Gingrich divide the anti-Romney forces.

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