Tuesday, November 27, 2018

politicalowl: The Owl does not understand why the Liberals are t...

politicalowl: The Owl does not understand why the Liberals are t...: The conventional wisdom is that the Liberals and National government will be re-elected in New South Wales. The betting markets have the coa...

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Labor now very short priced favourites in Victoria

The odds just after midnight on Betfair had Labor in Victoria at $1.11 and the Coalition at $10
The Owl is pleased he managed to have his token wager at $1.32 a week ago.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Maybe it's time to have a bet again

The Owl has not had a bet on politics for a couple of years or so. Don't know why really. Got sick of dealing with bookmakers who would not take a bet of more than $50 or so.
These days as a pensioner sick of battling to win a dollar with modest bets on the horses, perhaps it's time to return to an area where I seemed to be able to make a positive return. See my old record here.
I'll pretty much be sticking with Betfair for my investments. The amounts available at any one time might be small but patience can be rewarded.
I've started with trying to get $50 on Labor at $1.32 in Victoria.

Saturday, July 2, 2016

Laurie Oakes Expertly Trolled Australia's Betting Agencies Last Night

Laurie Oakes Expertly Trolled Australia's Betting Agencies Last Night:

"We don’t know a lot about the results of yesterday’s election, but one thing we do know is: don’t fuck with Laurie Oakes.

Australia’s most respected political journalist was the subject of his own betting market on election night - what colour tie would he wear on the Channel 9 panel?

And when the doyen of the press gallery came out in a little red number, which was the favourite, the team at Sportsbet were quite pleased with themselves. But then something dawned on them.

Laurie was gaming the system.

'via Blog this'

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Backing the underdog again

The opinion polls are still showing tomorrow's election will be a close run thing yet the gap between the Coalition and Labor on the market keeps growing. The prices still do not seem right to me. Hence another $50 on Labor at $8 for a potential win of $350 and down to a near enough score draw if the Coalition does win.
At least it will put a little excitement into election night.

Friday, June 24, 2016

A little victory and another small wager

Back on 14 May in a note headed UK to Leave European Union? I recorded investing a modest $50 at $3.30 on a majority Leave vote in the UK Brexit referendum. At the time the opinion polls had Leave and Stay at close to 50:50 and I could not understand why the betting showed such a difference.
I'll take the profit while kicking myself for not waiting another few weeks when the Leave price got out to as high as $6 while the polls continued to be close.
I tend to be a believer in the predictive power of markets on elections when compared to polls but today's result has turned my mind to Australia where there is again a wide difference between the two.
Many, many months ago I backed the Coalition to win at $1.89 and they are now in to $1.16 with Labor at $7. Being a cautious punter I have placed $30 at the 7's. That puts me in a must win position - $59 if the Coalition gets up and $80 if Labor ends up as the government.
For full details of my political speculations see The Portfolio - The Record so Far.

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Punters losing faith in the pollsters - the Brexit example

Believe the opinion polls and the punters would have the choices in the UK's Brexit referendum at even money take your pick. For several weeks now there has been nothing between stay and leave in the measurements of public opinion. If anything, leave is ever so slightly in front. But over at the Betfair betting exchange the stay option is the clear favourite.

The punters, probably influenced by the media pundits, clearly have no faith in the predictive power of polls. The memory of how wrong the polls were before the last British general election must be strong.
From my far away distance it just seems strange to me.