Saturday, July 2, 2016

Laurie Oakes Expertly Trolled Australia's Betting Agencies Last Night

Laurie Oakes Expertly Trolled Australia's Betting Agencies Last Night:

"We don’t know a lot about the results of yesterday’s election, but one thing we do know is: don’t fuck with Laurie Oakes.

Australia’s most respected political journalist was the subject of his own betting market on election night - what colour tie would he wear on the Channel 9 panel?

And when the doyen of the press gallery came out in a little red number, which was the favourite, the team at Sportsbet were quite pleased with themselves. But then something dawned on them.

Laurie was gaming the system.

'via Blog this'

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Backing the underdog again

The opinion polls are still showing tomorrow's election will be a close run thing yet the gap between the Coalition and Labor on the market keeps growing. The prices still do not seem right to me. Hence another $50 on Labor at $8 for a potential win of $350 and down to a near enough score draw if the Coalition does win.
At least it will put a little excitement into election night.

Friday, June 24, 2016

A little victory and another small wager

Back on 14 May in a note headed UK to Leave European Union? I recorded investing a modest $50 at $3.30 on a majority Leave vote in the UK Brexit referendum. At the time the opinion polls had Leave and Stay at close to 50:50 and I could not understand why the betting showed such a difference.
I'll take the profit while kicking myself for not waiting another few weeks when the Leave price got out to as high as $6 while the polls continued to be close.
I tend to be a believer in the predictive power of markets on elections when compared to polls but today's result has turned my mind to Australia where there is again a wide difference between the two.
Many, many months ago I backed the Coalition to win at $1.89 and they are now in to $1.16 with Labor at $7. Being a cautious punter I have placed $30 at the 7's. That puts me in a must win position - $59 if the Coalition gets up and $80 if Labor ends up as the government.
For full details of my political speculations see The Portfolio - The Record so Far.

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Punters losing faith in the pollsters - the Brexit example

Believe the opinion polls and the punters would have the choices in the UK's Brexit referendum at even money take your pick. For several weeks now there has been nothing between stay and leave in the measurements of public opinion. If anything, leave is ever so slightly in front. But over at the Betfair betting exchange the stay option is the clear favourite.

The punters, probably influenced by the media pundits, clearly have no faith in the predictive power of polls. The memory of how wrong the polls were before the last British general election must be strong.
From my far away distance it just seems strange to me.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Strange gap between polls and betting markets

An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating.

I find the short price about the Coalition a bit strange. By my rough calculation it suggests that the market is guessing that the Turnbull team will end up with a two party vote share somewhere above the 53% mark. The opinion polls meanwhile have the current position near enough to 50:50.

Saturday, May 28, 2016

The polls still have the UK's referendum close but the market doesn't

The Economist’s “Brexit” poll-tracker has it close again.

The market doesn't. On Betfair:
In favour of staying in EU $1.23
In favour of leaving EU $5.10

Friday, May 20, 2016

Peter Brent - a twitterer with the courage of his convictions

I don't know why Peter Brent's mumble blog no longer appears on the website of The Australian. Perhaps his commentary was too intelligent and interesting. Whatever. He has not stopped making his insights public on other sites with his twitter site providing the best link to find them.
I particularly like his courage in putting his predictions about the forthcoming election on the record with a list of what he describes as: "Election bets. Worry not, just small amounts. Needless to say, I don't consider a win in each likely, just good odds."

What a pity that the overwhelming majority of political pundits are not prepared to put their pontifications to the test.
At the moment I am cowardly in that majority category - see my piece yesterday Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election