Going for the Democrat outsider in the US Senate race

I am normally a favourite backer when it comes to elections. My experience suggests that the market on elections tends not to get the favoured party in short enough quickly enough.

So what am I doing on the US Congressional elections? Breaking my habits of a life time and going for the outsider in the Senate race.

The reason for my modest risk taking on the Democrats surviving as the majority party in the Senate comes from a couple of recent articles by Sam Wang on The Princeton Election Consortium website.

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years and Races I’ll be Watching on Election Night  outline what Wang calls “the mid-term polling curse” whereby historically, in any given year, midterm polls have been off in the same direction by a median of 2 or 3 percentage points.

Depending on the year, either Democrats or Republicans end up outperforming polls. In current poll medians, six races are within less than 2 percentage points: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. Therefore all six of these races could be won by Republicans…or all six could be won by Democrats.
The other races total 48 Republicans and 46 Democrats/Independents. Republicans are slightly favored to take control, since an even split of the six close races would give them the 51 seats they need. However, the likely possibilities range anywhere from a Republican majority of 54-46 to a Democratic majority of 52-48. As of today, cranking through the math and the uncertainties gives a probability of 55% for a Republican takeover.

That seems a good enough reason to me to recommend an interest on the event.

Some of the British bookies are offering $8.50 about the Democrats (plus independents who decide to caucus with them) being in the majority and that would suit me just fine. In Australia Betfair offers the three options of Democrat, Republican and neither (where caucusing independents are not counted with one of the major parties). So, $20 at the $8.50 to make election watching more fun.

Labor gets shorter in Victoria

So far so good with my "back Victorian Labor" recommendation. The $1.40 has gone with $1.28 now being the VicTab offering.
With further opinion polls over the last week showing Labor comfortably in front I do not expect tht price to remain for long.
Details of present and past betting suggestions at The Portfolio - the record so far.

Time to back Labor to win the Victorian state election

The $1.40 being offered tonight about Labor in the Victorian State election looks like value to me.

My suggested wager on this and other present and past events at The portfolio - the record so far

Any price longer than $1.25 has the odds in your favour.

Judging the political owl's predictions - at least they are proving profitable

My hunch was right about the "no" vote in the Scottish referendum. The "no" was stronger than the polls were predicting.
Hence a handy little profit as you will see set out on my The portfolio - the record so far page.
Since I began recording my political predictions by putting my money where my mouth is there has been a profit on turnover of 17.5%.
At the very least it lets readers make a judgment on the value of my political forecasts.

A very small amount of value on Scottish referendum

On the eve of the Scottish independence election there's not much value in my portfolio. I took $1.23 about the "No" vote back in February and $1.30 twice after that. Tonight the market puts "No" around the $1.22 mark so my advantage if I cashed my chips before the votes are counted would be marginal.
Still, I am sticking with my judgment that Scots will prove to be like Australians and vote "No" when some of the major parties are on that side of things.

Value again in the Scottish No vote

A couple of recent opinion polls have the gap between No and Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum narrowing a little but with the margin still around six points it does not look close to me. Perhaps that's because I'm Australian and used to the No vote being the referendum winner except when all the major parties are urging people to vote Yes.
To me the $1.30 on offer about a majority for No is akin to stealing money.
I'm going in again with another $200 of my own hard earned.

A debate ends and the voting in Scotland begins

The media consensus and the instant finding of the pollsters was that the Yes case for Scottish independence had the best of the debate last night which preceded the beginning of pre-poll voting for the referendum. But will it actually mean anything?

Not if the Owl’s election indicator is any guide. The No vote is a firmer favourite today than it was a week ago.

Voting day proper for the referendum is Thursday 18 September.

Note: The Owl backed the No vote at $1.23 and then again at $1.30. You will find details of all his political bets at the political speculator’s diary.

Tempted by UKIP at Newark and lured by a NO vote in Scotland

Remarkably few opinion polls to give the punters a guide in this week's Newark by-election where the Conservatives are a firm favourite to retain the seat. That rich political maverick, and former Tory party Treasurer, Lord Ashcroft did provide this guide at the weekend along with his regular nationwide survey.

With the Conservatives leading UKIP by 15 percentage points and with Labour and Liberal Democrats in the also-ran category it is no surprise that the market based Owl Election Indicator has the Conservatives strongly favoured. For my part I'm not prepared to take the short price because of as nagging suspicion that potential UKIP voters are understated in the same way as that Pauline Hansen lot once were in Australia. Haven't got the courage to put my money where my mouth is either.

When it comes to the Scottish referendum, where the campaign is now officially underway, my leaning towards the NO vote just keeps getting stronger. The only referendum form I know is from Australia where the record shows that when any major party opposes a proposition a majority do not vote in favour.

I notice as much as $1.30 available on the NO vote. Will do me for 120 units to win a potential 40.

Another modest election win on UKIP

I took a rather risk free approach to the UK part of the European election with both UKIP and Labour being winners and got the modest return I was after.The recommendations were:

EUROPEAN ELECTION
$460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election
$450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election.

UKIP ended up a clear winner with a $102,50 a profit the result.
The full record is at :

• The portfolio - the record so far

A modest improvement in UKIP's chances in the European parliamentary election

The strong showing by UKIP in the UK's local government elections has resulted in the markets making a five percentage point improvement in the assessed probability of that party gaining most votes in the elections of members to the European Parliament. Those votes for MEPs were caste on the same day as those for local governments but will not be counted until Sunday when elections in all European countries are concluded.

At this point of proceedings I am happy with my recommendations:

EUROPEAN ELECTION

• $460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election
• $450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election.

UKIP and Labour are both winners.

Now the pundits are betting on Abbott being replaced

From the Twitter feed this morning:

But Scotty Morrison to replace Tony Abbott? Now that would get Twitter twittering.

The market unmoved by criticism of Coalition budget

The Coalition government remains the firm favourite to be returned at the next Australian election whenever it might be held. Last Tuesday's budget left the market assessment as measured by the Owl's election indicator largely unchanged.

Chances of winning:

Sticking with UKIP

A couple of new polls this morning with predictions on what will happen on Thursday when they vote in the UK to elect members to the European Parliament.
The  ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday had UKIP clearly doing best and gave an explanation as to why its UKIP figure was higher than that of some other pollsters.

One of those other was a YouGov/Sun poll that had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place but the Polling Report website commented:

A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.

The betting markets are pointing towards UKIP polling the most votes with the politicalowl's indicator assessing the chances this way:

You will find my investments on the event at:

• The portfolio - the record so far

UKIP still favourite to win most seats in the UK version of the European Parliament election

The Economist is giving me confidence. I'm still happy to be on UKIP to win most votes in the UK vote for the European Parliament.
In its latest edition the esteemed journal says:

Yet UKIP’s advance in the opinion polls has continued relentlessly. According to the latest by ComRes, it should come top in the European Parliament elections, with 38% of the vote. In two English regions—the East and West Midlands—it is polling more than 50%. This is truly remarkable for a party with no MPs, a threadbare national organisation and, in Mr Farage, only one well-recognised politician. It suggests its many scandals are not damaging the party remotely.
The main reason for that is, of course, that hardly any Britons know or care about the European Parliament. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Euroscepticism and protest against the bogey of greedy and unaccountable bureaucrats, at home and abroad. If some UKIP candidates seem unfit for purpose, so be it—sending a bunch of rogues to the EU Parliament is what many British voters think it deserves.
A late swing towards the populist party, which is expected, would almost certainly deliver it victory in the election, beating Labour into second place, followed by the Conservatives. The reviled Liberal Democrats will be battling the Greens for fourth place.

The Political Owl's  election indicator puts the probabilities as:

Europe calls and UKIP gets my first investment

With just under a month to go until the elections on 22 May for the European Parliament I'm prepared to start taking notice of the opinion polls. And there's one thing I am getting confident about - the British Conservative Party is in for a right proper drubbing. And another - the Liberal Democrats are wasting their time even fielding candidates.
Here are the latest poll figures as tabulated on the UK Polling Report website:

It really does look like a two party race and, by-and-large, that's how the market sees it.

At the best prices available you can back all four runners and break square. Leave out the also running Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and you can get the two chances at a glorious 90%! Surely that's an opportunity too good to miss.

My recommendation is to wager in these proportions - $46 on Labour at the $2.2 from William Hill and $45 at Ladbrokes' $2.25.By my calculation it's $10 for nothing and only a month to wait.

You will find details of my outstanding bets and the betting record at The Portfolio - the record so far.

Out of my post-Intrade sulk - investing on a Scottish "No" vote

When the Irish based market trading website Intrade went through the hoop last year I lost enthusiasm for betting on politics. While it ended the most interesting of the political markets the need for financial sustenance has induced me to return even if that means tackling the odds of orthodox bookmakers on events where Betfair is not operating.
My first dabble for nearly 10 months is to back the "No" vote in the Scottish referendum to be held on 18 September at Betfair's $1.23 - $123 on for a potential win of $23.
For details of this and other current (some of those taken before the temporary retirement are yet to run) bets, along with the Owl's historical record, see The Portfolio page.