Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Another modest election win on UKIP

I took a rather risk free approach to the UK part of the European election with both UKIP and Labour being winners and got the modest return I was after.The recommendations were:
EUROPEAN ELECTION
$460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election
$450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election.
UKIP ended up a clear winner with a $102,50 a profit the result.
The full record is at :



Friday, May 23, 2014

A modest improvement in UKIP's chances in the European parliamentary election

The strong showing by UKIP in the UK's local government elections has resulted in the markets making a five percentage point improvement in the assessed probability of that party gaining most votes in the elections of members to the European Parliament. Those votes for MEPs were caste on the same day as those for local governments but will not be counted until Sunday when elections in all European countries are concluded.

At this point of proceedings I am happy with my recommendations:

EUROPEAN ELECTION
  • $460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election
  • $450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election.
UKIP and Labour are both winners.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Now the pundits are betting on Abbott being replaced

From the Twitter feed this morning:


But Scotty Morrison to replace Tony Abbott? Now that would get Twitter twittering.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

The market unmoved by criticism of Coalition budget

The Coalition government remains the firm favourite to be returned at the next Australian election whenever it might be held. Last Tuesday's budget left the market assessment as measured by the Owl's election indicator largely unchanged.
Chances of winning:
2014-05-18_federalindicator

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Sticking with UKIP

A couple of new polls this morning with predictions on what will happen on Thursday when they vote in the UK to elect members to the European Parliament.
The  ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday had UKIP clearly doing best and gave an explanation as to why its UKIP figure was higher than that of some other pollsters.
One of those other was a YouGov/Sun poll that had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place but the Polling Report website commented:
A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.

The betting markets are pointing towards UKIP polling the most votes with the politicalowl's indicator assessing the chances this way:
You will find my investments on the event at:

Friday, May 2, 2014

UKIP still favourite to win most seats in the UK version of the European Parliament election

The Economist is giving me confidence. I'm still happy to be on UKIP to win most votes in the UK vote for the European Parliament.
In its latest edition the esteemed journal says:
Yet UKIP’s advance in the opinion polls has continued relentlessly. According to the latest by ComRes, it should come top in the European Parliament elections, with 38% of the vote. In two English regions—the East and West Midlands—it is polling more than 50%. This is truly remarkable for a party with no MPs, a threadbare national organisation and, in Mr Farage, only one well-recognised politician. It suggests its many scandals are not damaging the party remotely.
The main reason for that is, of course, that hardly any Britons know or care about the European Parliament. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Euroscepticism and protest against the bogey of greedy and unaccountable bureaucrats, at home and abroad. If some UKIP candidates seem unfit for purpose, so be it—sending a bunch of rogues to the EU Parliament is what many British voters think it deserves.
A late swing towards the populist party, which is expected, would almost certainly deliver it victory in the election, beating Labour into second place, followed by the Conservatives. The reviled Liberal Democrats will be battling the Greens for fourth place.
The Political Owl's  election indicator puts the probabilities as: