Taking a punt on Romney

The Republican candidates are almost at the barrier for their first real race with the Iowa caucus to be held on 3 January with other state selections to follow quickly.

The big change in the markets over the last few weeks has been the bursting of the Newt Gingrich bubble. From being an almost even money favourite in Iowa at the start of the month he has now blown out to be a 9/1 chance.

The prediction markets are putting the probabilities thus:

I have taken 2/1about Mitt Romney winning at the Iowa caucus and the odds on about him winning in New Hampshire.