It's been a very short dalliance. My betting affair with Julia Gillard and federal Labor is over.
Two things have influenced me to take a meagre profit.
The first is the message of the last couple of national opinion polls. Newspoll last week and AC Nielsen today. Both showed slight falls for Labor. I had expected visits to Australia by the Queen and President Obama and a little grand touring by Miss Gillard to put the government in better standing than it is.
The second influence is this afternoon's Cabinet reshuffle. I can see no point for some of the changes - like enlarging the Cabinet membership and the promotion of Mark Arbib - as anything other than attempts to prop up support for the Gillard leadership. That she thought such a thing necessary tells me that there is more to those leadership challenge stories than I had assumed.
Hence I have undone my position on who will lead Labor at the next election to make someone other than Julia Gillard into a winner and backed the Coalition to win the election whenever it is held.
Current portfolio details will be updated here shortly.
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