The market unmoved by criticism of Coalition budget

The Coalition government remains the firm favourite to be returned at the next Australian election whenever it might be held. Last Tuesday's budget left the market assessment as measured by the Owl's election indicator largely unchanged.

Chances of winning:

Sticking with UKIP

A couple of new polls this morning with predictions on what will happen on Thursday when they vote in the UK to elect members to the European Parliament.
The  ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday had UKIP clearly doing best and gave an explanation as to why its UKIP figure was higher than that of some other pollsters.

One of those other was a YouGov/Sun poll that had topline figures of CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%. Labour are just ahead of UKIP in first place but the Polling Report website commented:

A lot of this apparent difference is down to how they approach turnout – YouGov’s topline figures are based on all respondents, if they took only those certain to vote UKIP would be ahead. ComRes’s figures include only those 10/10 certain to vote, if they included those who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote UKIP’s lead over Labour would be a far more modest 2 points.

The betting markets are pointing towards UKIP polling the most votes with the politicalowl's indicator assessing the chances this way:

You will find my investments on the event at:

• The portfolio - the record so far

UKIP still favourite to win most seats in the UK version of the European Parliament election

The Economist is giving me confidence. I'm still happy to be on UKIP to win most votes in the UK vote for the European Parliament.
In its latest edition the esteemed journal says:

Yet UKIP’s advance in the opinion polls has continued relentlessly. According to the latest by ComRes, it should come top in the European Parliament elections, with 38% of the vote. In two English regions—the East and West Midlands—it is polling more than 50%. This is truly remarkable for a party with no MPs, a threadbare national organisation and, in Mr Farage, only one well-recognised politician. It suggests its many scandals are not damaging the party remotely.
The main reason for that is, of course, that hardly any Britons know or care about the European Parliament. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Euroscepticism and protest against the bogey of greedy and unaccountable bureaucrats, at home and abroad. If some UKIP candidates seem unfit for purpose, so be it—sending a bunch of rogues to the EU Parliament is what many British voters think it deserves.
A late swing towards the populist party, which is expected, would almost certainly deliver it victory in the election, beating Labour into second place, followed by the Conservatives. The reviled Liberal Democrats will be battling the Greens for fourth place.

The Political Owl's  election indicator puts the probabilities as:

Europe calls and UKIP gets my first investment

With just under a month to go until the elections on 22 May for the European Parliament I'm prepared to start taking notice of the opinion polls. And there's one thing I am getting confident about - the British Conservative Party is in for a right proper drubbing. And another - the Liberal Democrats are wasting their time even fielding candidates.
Here are the latest poll figures as tabulated on the UK Polling Report website:

It really does look like a two party race and, by-and-large, that's how the market sees it.

At the best prices available you can back all four runners and break square. Leave out the also running Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and you can get the two chances at a glorious 90%! Surely that's an opportunity too good to miss.

My recommendation is to wager in these proportions - $46 on Labour at the $2.2 from William Hill and $45 at Ladbrokes' $2.25.By my calculation it's $10 for nothing and only a month to wait.

You will find details of my outstanding bets and the betting record at The Portfolio - the record so far.

Out of my post-Intrade sulk - investing on a Scottish "No" vote

When the Irish based market trading website Intrade went through the hoop last year I lost enthusiasm for betting on politics. While it ended the most interesting of the political markets the need for financial sustenance has induced me to return even if that means tackling the odds of orthodox bookmakers on events where Betfair is not operating.
My first dabble for nearly 10 months is to back the "No" vote in the Scottish referendum to be held on 18 September at Betfair's $1.23 - $123 on for a potential win of $23.
For details of this and other current (some of those taken before the temporary retirement are yet to run) bets, along with the Owl's historical record, see The Portfolio page.

Backing Tony Abbott to last until 14 September

It's better than bank interest that $1.09 being offered on Tony Abbott leading the Liberal Party on the next Australian election day. The only real risk is death or incapacity before 14 September so having made a modest investment to win $18 I hope he doesn't fall off his bike.
Details of all the political speculator's investments are on the Portfolio page.
The profit to date is $457.50 on a $1000 bank.

Going for the long shot in Western Australia

I am believer in the underdog when it comes to elections. When governments are regarded s certainties oppositions regularly do much better than expected.

Hence the investment of 4 units on Labor to win in the Western Australian state election this weekend at a price of $26.

If nothing else it will help me fill in time until the English football coverage begins in the early hours of Sunday morning.

And it can't do much damage to the betting account balance which is showing a modest profit as you can see HERE.