Friday, May 2, 2014

UKIP still favourite to win most seats in the UK version of the European Parliament election

The Economist is giving me confidence. I'm still happy to be on UKIP to win most votes in the UK vote for the European Parliament.
In its latest edition the esteemed journal says:
Yet UKIP’s advance in the opinion polls has continued relentlessly. According to the latest by ComRes, it should come top in the European Parliament elections, with 38% of the vote. In two English regions—the East and West Midlands—it is polling more than 50%. This is truly remarkable for a party with no MPs, a threadbare national organisation and, in Mr Farage, only one well-recognised politician. It suggests its many scandals are not damaging the party remotely.
The main reason for that is, of course, that hardly any Britons know or care about the European Parliament. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Euroscepticism and protest against the bogey of greedy and unaccountable bureaucrats, at home and abroad. If some UKIP candidates seem unfit for purpose, so be it—sending a bunch of rogues to the EU Parliament is what many British voters think it deserves.
A late swing towards the populist party, which is expected, would almost certainly deliver it victory in the election, beating Labour into second place, followed by the Conservatives. The reviled Liberal Democrats will be battling the Greens for fourth place.
The Political Owl's  election indicator puts the probabilities as:

No comments:

Post a Comment