I find the short price about the Coalition a bit strange. By my rough calculation it suggests that the market is guessing that the Turnbull team will end up with a two party vote share somewhere above the 53% mark. The opinion polls meanwhile have the current position near enough to 50:50.Probability of a Coalition win across betting houses 81.8% up 1.9pp on yesterday #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/2HIPfMqey6— Mark the Graph (@Mark_Graph) June 15, 2016
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Strange gap between polls and betting markets
An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating.