Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Strange gap between polls and betting markets

An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating.

I find the short price about the Coalition a bit strange. By my rough calculation it suggests that the market is guessing that the Turnbull team will end up with a two party vote share somewhere above the 53% mark. The opinion polls meanwhile have the current position near enough to 50:50.

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