Friday, June 24, 2016

A little victory and another small wager

Back on 14 May in a note headed UK to Leave European Union? I recorded investing a modest $50 at $3.30 on a majority Leave vote in the UK Brexit referendum. At the time the opinion polls had Leave and Stay at close to 50:50 and I could not understand why the betting showed such a difference.
I'll take the profit while kicking myself for not waiting another few weeks when the Leave price got out to as high as $6 while the polls continued to be close.
I tend to be a believer in the predictive power of markets on elections when compared to polls but today's result has turned my mind to Australia where there is again a wide difference between the two.
Many, many months ago I backed the Coalition to win at $1.89 and they are now in to $1.16 with Labor at $7. Being a cautious punter I have placed $30 at the 7's. That puts me in a must win position - $59 if the Coalition gets up and $80 if Labor ends up as the government.
For full details of my political speculations see The Portfolio - The Record so Far.

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