Thursday, May 19, 2016

Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

I look at the signals of a weakening economy show by ABS figures on low wages growth and the decline in the number of hours being worked. I note that the Reserve Bank felt growth stalling to the extent that a further interest rate cut was needed. I see most of the opinion polls now putting Labor in a winning position. But still the market shows the Coalition is a firm and shortening favourite to be returned on 2 July.
William Hill put it this way in a press release earlier in the week:

  • Election Betting Watch – 19/05
  •  
  • Midway through the second week of Election 2016 and the money has poured in for the Coalition to be returned.
  • “Punters have backed the Coalition from $1.40 to $1.28 over the first 10 days of the campaign,” a William Hill spokesperson said.
  • “One punter has had $40,000 on at $1.30 while we have written a number of other four-figure bets for Malcolm Turnbull to be heading back to the lodge.
  • “The polls have certainly been favourable to the Coalition and Australia rarely throws out a government after one-term.”
  • The ALP have drifted from $3.30 to $3.60 with little interest in Bill Shorten pulling off a monumental upset.
  • Coalition Big Bets
  • $40,000 @ $1.30
  • $3,000 @ $1.30
  • $1,000 @ $1.30
  • ALP Big Bets
  • There has been little interest in Labor but there was still some action on the ALP.
  • $500 @ $3.55
  • $400 @ $3.40
  • $200 @ $3.70
  •  
  • https://www.williamhill.com.au/elections/5252054/d/australian-federal-election


To me it doesn't make sense but experience over the years has taught me that the market is hard to beat.
Hence the lack of action by me on this election.

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