Thursday, May 19, 2016

Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

I look at the signals of a weakening economy show by ABS figures on low wages growth and the decline in the number of hours being worked. I note that the Reserve Bank felt growth stalling to the extent that a further interest rate cut was needed. I see most of the opinion polls now putting Labor in a winning position. But still the market shows the Coalition is a firm and shortening favourite to be returned on 2 July.
William Hill put it this way in a press release earlier in the week:

  • Election Betting Watch – 19/05
  • Midway through the second week of Election 2016 and the money has poured in for the Coalition to be returned.
  • “Punters have backed the Coalition from $1.40 to $1.28 over the first 10 days of the campaign,” a William Hill spokesperson said.
  • “One punter has had $40,000 on at $1.30 while we have written a number of other four-figure bets for Malcolm Turnbull to be heading back to the lodge.
  • “The polls have certainly been favourable to the Coalition and Australia rarely throws out a government after one-term.”
  • The ALP have drifted from $3.30 to $3.60 with little interest in Bill Shorten pulling off a monumental upset.
  • Coalition Big Bets
  • $40,000 @ $1.30
  • $3,000 @ $1.30
  • $1,000 @ $1.30
  • ALP Big Bets
  • There has been little interest in Labor but there was still some action on the ALP.
  • $500 @ $3.55
  • $400 @ $3.40
  • $200 @ $3.70

To me it doesn't make sense but experience over the years has taught me that the market is hard to beat.
Hence the lack of action by me on this election.

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