Thursday, May 19, 2016

An alternative view to mine on the UK leaving the EU

For a different perspective to mine on the prospective outcome of the UK referendum on whether to leave or stay in the European Union: Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet.
It is an interesting assessment of why the opinion polls I have relied to have my $50 on the Brexit option might not be telling the true story. It concludes thus:

The mood music of the camps

It is fair to say that neither camp has exuded an image of confidence. Remain’s warnings have been shrill, while Leave have issued wild attacks on the integrity of those voicing inconvenient views. Both Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson have been lured into discussing a rerun of the referendum if Remain secures a narrow victory, which suggests that they feel that the campaign is ebbing away from them.

The lack of confidence in both camps and the impression that Leave thinks it is behind can be explained by the two sides’ different aims. Leave wants to get to 50%+1. Remain wants to settle the debate for a generation. It is entirely possible that both will be thwarted in their aim and that both believe that on their own terms they will fail.

If you agree, the 5/6 offered by Ladbrokes that Leave will secure over 44.5% of the vote looks fair value, and I’ve backed this bet. If you’re betting on the main event, anything like 1/4 offered on Remain looks an excellent price and you are unlikely to get much better value in the absence of an unexpected development. Take it.

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