Saturday, March 17, 2012

Value in Campbell Newman

Playing the man just isn't working for Queensland Labor. This morning's Galaxy poll in the Brisbane Sunday Mail suggests, as the paper puts it, Labor Faces Disaster.
With six days to go I cannot imagine how Anna Bligh can rescue things from here.
The $1.06 the bookies are offering about the Liberal National Party are probably generous but there is far better value in Sportingbet's $1.45 about Campbell Newman winning the seat of Ashgrove. The anti-Labor swing is shaping up as so large that even an excellent campaign by the sitting Labor member will not be enough.
Saturday's Newspoll looks pretty accurate to me.
On the basis of a 52 to 48 split in the two party preferred vote, anything better than $1.33 about Campbell Newman is value.
I have taken the $1.45 - see the current portfolio of this and other wagers - including the $40 I optimistically put on Labor some months back to actually win the election! Silly me.

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