Monday, February 27, 2012

This week's Republican contests

Australia’s Labor is not the only political party that will be struggling to find a fresh face to become its leader as the year goes on. The US Republicans appear to have the same problem. At the end of the first two months of the selection process for a presidential candidate there is not yet a clear cut leader.
Reservations exist within the Republican ranks about all four of those currently in the race. As measured by the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, President Barack Obama has clear leads in hypothetical contests with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Candidate Rick Santorum is given a narrow lead but his social conservatism has not yet been exposed to the kind of criticism that Democrats would surely mount. Already there is talk of none of the four obtaining a majority of votes before the nominating convention which would leave the way open for the selection of someone else.
Perhaps the next round of primaries and caucuses will provide a clearer guide. Later today there will be polls in Arizona and Michigan with the Crikey Republican Election Indicators predicting the following:

Because it is Romney's home state - and if you cannot win at home you might as well retire from the contest - I have ventured $68.70 on Romney to win in Michigan for a potential win of $31.30.

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