One for the memory bank

$4.25 on TA to be PM at next election are great odds (MBT $1.40). If it wasn't a conflict I'd throw $1,000 on Abbott for sure at those odds.

— Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) February 22, 2015

Punting on the Oscars - it's Birdman for me

I'm reverting to my normal practice of assuming that the punters don't get the favourite in short enough when betting on elections. Hence 100 on Birdman at $1.70 to be best picture at the Oscars.

Abbott to go and Liberals to win

I am old enough to remember the jubilation in Gough Whitlam's Labor Party the day that Billy Mackie Snedden was finally sacked as leader of the opposition after months of withering attacks by the prime minister. And I recollect believing that the euphoria caused by Gough's "brilliance" would be temporary and disappear with that loss of Labor's best weapon. 

So if I was Bill Shorten today I would be hoping and praying that Tony Abbott survives next week's Liberal party meeting. Malcolm Turnbull has all the credentials to do to him what Malcolm Fraser did to Gough Whitlam.

Not that I think Abbott will survive. Should he escape on Tuesday it will not be for long. He does not have what it takes to run the country and his colleagues know it. They know as well that Shorten is no world beater. With Turnbull as leader taking on Shorten they have a good chance of keeping their seat.

I will be having a modest investment on the Coalition to win the next election -  100 units at $1.89

A little something on interest rates remaining the same

I must say it's fun for those of us who like an occasional flutter on something other than sport that the Reserve Bank has returned its official interest rate setting to the agenda. This afternoon's decision is the first for months in which there has been any value in backing your opinion. This is how the election indicator on my companion site politicalowl.com assesses the probabilities.

Maybe it's just because I want an added satisfaction should the Herald Sun's Terry McCrann prove wrong in his prediction of a rate rise but I'm recommending a little of the $1.73 at Betfair that the bank board decides on no change. 50 units invested.

A Queensland Opportunity and I'm risking a little on Labor

A state election on 31 January - something to put some interest into the silly season for political junkies. And, methinks, an opportunity.
I have no inside information but I am puzzled that the bookies have the Queensland LNP Government as short as they are this evening. The pollsters put it at 50:50.
I'm starting my betting with 100 units on Labor at the generally available $3.80

Going for the Democrat outsider in the US Senate race

I am normally a favourite backer when it comes to elections. My experience suggests that the market on elections tends not to get the favoured party in short enough quickly enough.

So what am I doing on the US Congressional elections? Breaking my habits of a life time and going for the outsider in the Senate race.

The reason for my modest risk taking on the Democrats surviving as the majority party in the Senate comes from a couple of recent articles by Sam Wang on The Princeton Election Consortium website.

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years and Races I’ll be Watching on Election Night  outline what Wang calls “the mid-term polling curse” whereby historically, in any given year, midterm polls have been off in the same direction by a median of 2 or 3 percentage points.

Depending on the year, either Democrats or Republicans end up outperforming polls. In current poll medians, six races are within less than 2 percentage points: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. Therefore all six of these races could be won by Republicans…or all six could be won by Democrats.
The other races total 48 Republicans and 46 Democrats/Independents. Republicans are slightly favored to take control, since an even split of the six close races would give them the 51 seats they need. However, the likely possibilities range anywhere from a Republican majority of 54-46 to a Democratic majority of 52-48. As of today, cranking through the math and the uncertainties gives a probability of 55% for a Republican takeover.

That seems a good enough reason to me to recommend an interest on the event.

Some of the British bookies are offering $8.50 about the Democrats (plus independents who decide to caucus with them) being in the majority and that would suit me just fine. In Australia Betfair offers the three options of Democrat, Republican and neither (where caucusing independents are not counted with one of the major parties). So, $20 at the $8.50 to make election watching more fun.

Labor gets shorter in Victoria

So far so good with my "back Victorian Labor" recommendation. The $1.40 has gone with $1.28 now being the VicTab offering.
With further opinion polls over the last week showing Labor comfortably in front I do not expect tht price to remain for long.
Details of present and past betting suggestions at The Portfolio - the record so far.