A note from my Politicalowl blog:

A prudent Reserve Bank would wait
The monthly official interest game is upon us. And those bank economists who make a living selling their snake-oil opinions think the Reserve Bank board will cut the official rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2%.Well the market, one those bank economists tend to make, tends to agree with them. Here's The Owl's interest rate indicator:
Some how it does not seem right to me. Perhaps an interest rate cut will be necessary but if I was a Reserve Bank board member I would wait see what the government did in its budget before moving.I'll be having a small wager on there being no change tomorrow. 

I am venturing 50 units on no change at $3.

A little wager on no interest rate change

The retail sales figures from the ABS this morning were stronger than most pundits thought likely, rising 0.7 per cent in February following a strong gain in January. That's enough to persuade me that the market has it wrong in leaning towards a cut in official interest rates this afternoon. Here's the Betfair market as at 12.30pm

Click to enlarge

The 2.64 looks value to me. A suggested 50 units.

A little something on interest rates remaining the same

I must say it's fun for those of us who like an occasional flutter on something other than sport that the Reserve Bank has returned its official interest rate setting to the agenda. This afternoon's decision is the first for months in which there has been any value in backing your opinion. This is how the election indicator on my companion site politicalowl.com assesses the probabilities.

Maybe it's just because I want an added satisfaction should the Herald Sun's Terry McCrann prove wrong in his prediction of a rate rise but I'm recommending a little of the $1.73 at Betfair that the bank board decides on no change. 50 units invested.