Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Tempted to back Obama yet again but ...

If it wasn't for the cautionary words years ago of the most successful professional punter I know that I always have a tendency to "overbet", I'd be having more on Barack Obama to win this presidential election. To me he is looking more and more like a good thing every day but I do have a considerable proportion of my portfolio on him already. I've got to continually remind myself not to be foolhardy so I'm letting the current 68% or so available from Intrade pass but if you have not already invested on the event now is the time to do so.
To the evidence for my increasing belief.
First up, the piece headlined "The Romney campaign is in trouble" posted on the Washington Post website on Monday by the always interesting Ezra Klein.
There are two sure signs a campaign is in trouble. The first is that it begins changing its strategy rapidly and erratically. The second is that it begins attacking its strategists fiercely and anonymously.The Romney campaign is in trouble.First came the changes in strategy. It went from doing everything possible to assure a “referendum” election to picking Paul Ryan as the vice presidential nominee and going for a choice election. It went from focusing relentlessly on the economy to cycling among welfare, Medicare and Libya. The latest ad is about manufacturing jobs in China.Now we’re hearing the calls for a change in strategists. On Sunday night, Politico published a 2,700-word piece mostly dedicated to giving “Romney aides, advisers and friends” space to knife Stuart Stevens, Mitt Romney’s top strategist. 
Then there's this judgment from The Daily Beast:

It looks more and more like a dispirited and disappointed collection of factions, preparing to lay blame for a lost presidential election and to do battle to shape a new direction for the Grand Old Party.Last week the view hardened that the Republican nominee was in close to terminal trouble. Having lost the summer as he let the Obama campaign define him, having lost the conventions when he let Clint Eastwood step all over his acceptance speech, Mitt Romney spectacularly lost his head on Sept. 11 during the mob attack on U.S. diplomats in Egypt and Libya. He came across as a low-life opportunist rushing to exploit a national tragedy in order to score political points and then doubling down on this venal dumbness with a smirking and contentious press conference. This week he may well have finished the job, with a video leaking of him referring to 47 percent of the electorate as government moochers.Romney’s advisers have taken to bashing the press for covering the bad news, a near-certain sign of a losing campaign, as is the simultaneous effort to quarrel with the methodology of polls showing him trailing in the battleground states with almost no way of reaching 270 electoral votes. 

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