The form on this contest has been done by none other than the boffins at the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. They have studied their tea leaves and determined that the odds are greater than 50% that the USA will experience a recession sometime early in 2012.
So when I see that on Intrade the mob reckon that the chances are only 38% I reckon it's worth backing the opinion of the bankers for a little hit.
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