Time to back Labor to win the Victorian state election

The $1.40 being offered tonight about Labor in the Victorian State election looks like value to me.

My suggested wager on this and other present and past events at The portfolio - the record so far

Any price longer than $1.25 has the odds in your favour.

Judging the political owl's predictions - at least they are proving profitable

My hunch was right about the "no" vote in the Scottish referendum. The "no" was stronger than the polls were predicting.
Hence a handy little profit as you will see set out on my The portfolio - the record so far page.
Since I began recording my political predictions by putting my money where my mouth is there has been a profit on turnover of 17.5%.
At the very least it lets readers make a judgment on the value of my political forecasts.

A very small amount of value on Scottish referendum

On the eve of the Scottish independence election there's not much value in my portfolio. I took $1.23 about the "No" vote back in February and $1.30 twice after that. Tonight the market puts "No" around the $1.22 mark so my advantage if I cashed my chips before the votes are counted would be marginal.
Still, I am sticking with my judgment that Scots will prove to be like Australians and vote "No" when some of the major parties are on that side of things.

Value again in the Scottish No vote

A couple of recent opinion polls have the gap between No and Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum narrowing a little but with the margin still around six points it does not look close to me. Perhaps that's because I'm Australian and used to the No vote being the referendum winner except when all the major parties are urging people to vote Yes.
To me the $1.30 on offer about a majority for No is akin to stealing money.
I'm going in again with another $200 of my own hard earned.

A debate ends and the voting in Scotland begins

The media consensus and the instant finding of the pollsters was that the Yes case for Scottish independence had the best of the debate last night which preceded the beginning of pre-poll voting for the referendum. But will it actually mean anything?

Not if the Owl’s election indicator is any guide. The No vote is a firmer favourite today than it was a week ago.

Voting day proper for the referendum is Thursday 18 September.

Note: The Owl backed the No vote at $1.23 and then again at $1.30. You will find details of all his political bets at the political speculator’s diary.

Tempted by UKIP at Newark and lured by a NO vote in Scotland

Remarkably few opinion polls to give the punters a guide in this week's Newark by-election where the Conservatives are a firm favourite to retain the seat. That rich political maverick, and former Tory party Treasurer, Lord Ashcroft did provide this guide at the weekend along with his regular nationwide survey.

With the Conservatives leading UKIP by 15 percentage points and with Labour and Liberal Democrats in the also-ran category it is no surprise that the market based Owl Election Indicator has the Conservatives strongly favoured. For my part I'm not prepared to take the short price because of as nagging suspicion that potential UKIP voters are understated in the same way as that Pauline Hansen lot once were in Australia. Haven't got the courage to put my money where my mouth is either.

When it comes to the Scottish referendum, where the campaign is now officially underway, my leaning towards the NO vote just keeps getting stronger. The only referendum form I know is from Australia where the record shows that when any major party opposes a proposition a majority do not vote in favour.

I notice as much as $1.30 available on the NO vote. Will do me for 120 units to win a potential 40.

Another modest election win on UKIP

I took a rather risk free approach to the UK part of the European election with both UKIP and Labour being winners and got the modest return I was after.The recommendations were:

EUROPEAN ELECTION
$460 on Labour at $2.20 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election
$450 on UKIP at $2.25 to win most votes in the UK at the European parliamentary election.

UKIP ended up a clear winner with a $102,50 a profit the result.
The full record is at :

• The portfolio - the record so far