Going for the Democrat outsider in the US Senate race

I am normally a favourite backer when it comes to elections. My experience suggests that the market on elections tends not to get the favoured party in short enough quickly enough.

So what am I doing on the US Congressional elections? Breaking my habits of a life time and going for the outsider in the Senate race.

The reason for my modest risk taking on the Democrats surviving as the majority party in the Senate comes from a couple of recent articles by Sam Wang on The Princeton Election Consortium website.

Midterm National Senate Polling Error Is Five Times Larger Than In Presidential Years and Races I’ll be Watching on Election Night  outline what Wang calls “the mid-term polling curse” whereby historically, in any given year, midterm polls have been off in the same direction by a median of 2 or 3 percentage points.

Depending on the year, either Democrats or Republicans end up outperforming polls. In current poll medians, six races are within less than 2 percentage points: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. Therefore all six of these races could be won by Republicans…or all six could be won by Democrats.
The other races total 48 Republicans and 46 Democrats/Independents. Republicans are slightly favored to take control, since an even split of the six close races would give them the 51 seats they need. However, the likely possibilities range anywhere from a Republican majority of 54-46 to a Democratic majority of 52-48. As of today, cranking through the math and the uncertainties gives a probability of 55% for a Republican takeover.

That seems a good enough reason to me to recommend an interest on the event.

Some of the British bookies are offering $8.50 about the Democrats (plus independents who decide to caucus with them) being in the majority and that would suit me just fine. In Australia Betfair offers the three options of Democrat, Republican and neither (where caucusing independents are not counted with one of the major parties). So, $20 at the $8.50 to make election watching more fun.

Labor gets shorter in Victoria

So far so good with my "back Victorian Labor" recommendation. The $1.40 has gone with $1.28 now being the VicTab offering.
With further opinion polls over the last week showing Labor comfortably in front I do not expect tht price to remain for long.
Details of present and past betting suggestions at The Portfolio - the record so far.

Time to back Labor to win the Victorian state election

The $1.40 being offered tonight about Labor in the Victorian State election looks like value to me.

My suggested wager on this and other present and past events at The portfolio - the record so far

Any price longer than $1.25 has the odds in your favour.

Judging the political owl's predictions - at least they are proving profitable

My hunch was right about the "no" vote in the Scottish referendum. The "no" was stronger than the polls were predicting.
Hence a handy little profit as you will see set out on my The portfolio - the record so far page.
Since I began recording my political predictions by putting my money where my mouth is there has been a profit on turnover of 17.5%.
At the very least it lets readers make a judgment on the value of my political forecasts.

A very small amount of value on Scottish referendum

On the eve of the Scottish independence election there's not much value in my portfolio. I took $1.23 about the "No" vote back in February and $1.30 twice after that. Tonight the market puts "No" around the $1.22 mark so my advantage if I cashed my chips before the votes are counted would be marginal.
Still, I am sticking with my judgment that Scots will prove to be like Australians and vote "No" when some of the major parties are on that side of things.

Value again in the Scottish No vote

A couple of recent opinion polls have the gap between No and Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum narrowing a little but with the margin still around six points it does not look close to me. Perhaps that's because I'm Australian and used to the No vote being the referendum winner except when all the major parties are urging people to vote Yes.
To me the $1.30 on offer about a majority for No is akin to stealing money.
I'm going in again with another $200 of my own hard earned.

A debate ends and the voting in Scotland begins

The media consensus and the instant finding of the pollsters was that the Yes case for Scottish independence had the best of the debate last night which preceded the beginning of pre-poll voting for the referendum. But will it actually mean anything?

Not if the Owl’s election indicator is any guide. The No vote is a firmer favourite today than it was a week ago.

Voting day proper for the referendum is Thursday 18 September.

Note: The Owl backed the No vote at $1.23 and then again at $1.30. You will find details of all his political bets at the political speculator’s diary.