Judging the political owl's predictions - at least they are proving profitable

My hunch was right about the "no" vote in the Scottish referendum. The "no" was stronger than the polls were predicting.
Hence a handy little profit as you will see set out on my The portfolio - the record so far page.
Since I began recording my political predictions by putting my money where my mouth is there has been a profit on turnover of 17.5%.
At the very least it lets readers make a judgment on the value of my political forecasts.

A very small amount of value on Scottish referendum

On the eve of the Scottish independence election there's not much value in my portfolio. I took $1.23 about the "No" vote back in February and $1.30 twice after that. Tonight the market puts "No" around the $1.22 mark so my advantage if I cashed my chips before the votes are counted would be marginal.
Still, I am sticking with my judgment that Scots will prove to be like Australians and vote "No" when some of the major parties are on that side of things.

Value again in the Scottish No vote

A couple of recent opinion polls have the gap between No and Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum narrowing a little but with the margin still around six points it does not look close to me. Perhaps that's because I'm Australian and used to the No vote being the referendum winner except when all the major parties are urging people to vote Yes.
To me the $1.30 on offer about a majority for No is akin to stealing money.
I'm going in again with another $200 of my own hard earned.

A debate ends and the voting in Scotland begins

The media consensus and the instant finding of the pollsters was that the Yes case for Scottish independence had the best of the debate last night which preceded the beginning of pre-poll voting for the referendum. But will it actually mean anything?

Not if the Owl’s election indicator is any guide. The No vote is a firmer favourite today than it was a week ago.

Voting day proper for the referendum is Thursday 18 September.

Note: The Owl backed the No vote at $1.23 and then again at $1.30. You will find details of all his political bets at the political speculator’s diary.