Backing the underdog again

The opinion polls are still showing tomorrow's election will be a close run thing yet the gap between the Coalition and Labor on the market keeps growing. The prices still do not seem right to me. Hence another $50 on Labor at $8 for a potential win of $350 and down to a near enough score draw if the Coalition does win.
At least it will put a little excitement into election night.

A little victory and another small wager

Back on 14 May in a note headed UK to Leave European Union? I recorded investing a modest $50 at $3.30 on a majority Leave vote in the UK Brexit referendum. At the time the opinion polls had Leave and Stay at close to 50:50 and I could not understand why the betting showed such a difference.
I'll take the profit while kicking myself for not waiting another few weeks when the Leave price got out to as high as $6 while the polls continued to be close.
I tend to be a believer in the predictive power of markets on elections when compared to polls but today's result has turned my mind to Australia where there is again a wide difference between the two.
Many, many months ago I backed the Coalition to win at $1.89 and they are now in to $1.16 with Labor at $7. Being a cautious punter I have placed $30 at the 7's. That puts me in a must win position - $59 if the Coalition gets up and $80 if Labor ends up as the government.
For full details of my political speculations see The Portfolio - The Record so Far.

Strange gap between polls and betting markets

An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating.

Probability of a Coalition win across betting houses 81.8% up 1.9pp on yesterday #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/2HIPfMqey6

— Mark the Graph (@Mark_Graph) June 15, 2016

I find the short price about the Coalition a bit strange. By my rough calculation it suggests that the market is guessing that the Turnbull team will end up with a two party vote share somewhere above the 53% mark. The opinion polls meanwhile have the current position near enough to 50:50.

Peter Brent - a twitterer with the courage of his convictions

I don't know why Peter Brent's mumble blog no longer appears on the website of The Australian. Perhaps his commentary was too intelligent and interesting. Whatever. He has not stopped making his insights public on other sites with his twitter site providing the best link to find them.
I particularly like his courage in putting his predictions about the forthcoming election on the record with a list of what he describes as: "Election bets. Worry not, just small amounts. Needless to say, I don't consider a win in each likely, just good odds."

What a pity that the overwhelming majority of political pundits are not prepared to put their pontifications to the test.

At the moment I am cowardly in that majority category - see my piece yesterday Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

I look at the signals of a weakening economy show by ABS figures on low wages growth and the decline in the number of hours being worked. I note that the Reserve Bank felt growth stalling to the extent that a further interest rate cut was needed. I see most of the opinion polls now putting Labor in a winning position. But still the market shows the Coalition is a firm and shortening favourite to be returned on 2 July.
William Hill put it this way in a press release earlier in the week:

• Election Betting Watch – 19/05
•  
• Midway through the second week of Election 2016 and the money has poured in for the Coalition to be returned.
• “Punters have backed the Coalition from $1.40 to $1.28 over the first 10 days of the campaign,” a William Hill spokesperson said.
• “One punter has had $40,000 on at $1.30 while we have written a number of other four-figure bets for Malcolm Turnbull to be heading back to the lodge.
• “The polls have certainly been favourable to the Coalition and Australia rarely throws out a government after one-term.”
• The ALP have drifted from $3.30 to $3.60 with little interest in Bill Shorten pulling off a monumental upset.
• Coalition Big Bets
• $40,000 @ $1.30
• $3,000 @ $1.30
• $1,000 @ $1.30
• ALP Big Bets
• There has been little interest in Labor but there was still some action on the ALP.
• $500 @ $3.55
• $400 @ $3.40
• $200 @ $3.70
•  
• https://www.williamhill.com.au/elections/5252054/d/australian-federal-election

To me it doesn't make sense but experience over the years has taught me that the market is hard to beat.
Hence the lack of action by me on this election.

Abbott to go and Liberals to win

I am old enough to remember the jubilation in Gough Whitlam's Labor Party the day that Billy Mackie Snedden was finally sacked as leader of the opposition after months of withering attacks by the prime minister. And I recollect believing that the euphoria caused by Gough's "brilliance" would be temporary and disappear with that loss of Labor's best weapon. 

So if I was Bill Shorten today I would be hoping and praying that Tony Abbott survives next week's Liberal party meeting. Malcolm Turnbull has all the credentials to do to him what Malcolm Fraser did to Gough Whitlam.

Not that I think Abbott will survive. Should he escape on Tuesday it will not be for long. He does not have what it takes to run the country and his colleagues know it. They know as well that Shorten is no world beater. With Turnbull as leader taking on Shorten they have a good chance of keeping their seat.

I will be having a modest investment on the Coalition to win the next election -  100 units at $1.89

The market unmoved by criticism of Coalition budget

The Coalition government remains the firm favourite to be returned at the next Australian election whenever it might be held. Last Tuesday's budget left the market assessment as measured by the Owl's election indicator largely unchanged.

Chances of winning: