politicalowl: The Owl does not understand why the Liberals are t...

politicalowl: The Owl does not understand why the Liberals are t...: The conventional wisdom is that the Liberals and National government will be re-elected in New South Wales. The betting markets have the coa...

Labor now very short priced favourites in Victoria

The odds just after midnight on Betfair had Labor in Victoria at $1.11 and the Coalition at $10
The Owl is pleased he managed to have his token wager at $1.32 a week ago.

Maybe it's time to have a bet again

The Owl has not had a bet on politics for a couple of years or so. Don't know why really. Got sick of dealing with bookmakers who would not take a bet of more than $50 or so.
These days as a pensioner sick of battling to win a dollar with modest bets on the horses, perhaps it's time to return to an area where I seemed to be able to make a positive return. See my old record here.
I'll pretty much be sticking with Betfair for my investments. The amounts available at any one time might be small but patience can be rewarded.
I've started with trying to get $50 on Labor at $1.32 in Victoria.

Laurie Oakes Expertly Trolled Australia's Betting Agencies Last Night

Laurie Oakes Expertly Trolled Australia's Betting Agencies Last Night:

"We don’t know a lot about the results of yesterday’s election, but one thing we do know is: don’t fuck with Laurie Oakes.

Australia’s most respected political journalist was the subject of his own betting market on election night - what colour tie would he wear on the Channel 9 panel?

And when the doyen of the press gallery came out in a little red number, which was the favourite, the team at Sportsbet were quite pleased with themselves. But then something dawned on them.

Laurie was gaming the system.

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Backing the underdog again

The opinion polls are still showing tomorrow's election will be a close run thing yet the gap between the Coalition and Labor on the market keeps growing. The prices still do not seem right to me. Hence another $50 on Labor at $8 for a potential win of $350 and down to a near enough score draw if the Coalition does win.
At least it will put a little excitement into election night.

A little victory and another small wager

Back on 14 May in a note headed UK to Leave European Union? I recorded investing a modest $50 at $3.30 on a majority Leave vote in the UK Brexit referendum. At the time the opinion polls had Leave and Stay at close to 50:50 and I could not understand why the betting showed such a difference.
I'll take the profit while kicking myself for not waiting another few weeks when the Leave price got out to as high as $6 while the polls continued to be close.
I tend to be a believer in the predictive power of markets on elections when compared to polls but today's result has turned my mind to Australia where there is again a wide difference between the two.
Many, many months ago I backed the Coalition to win at $1.89 and they are now in to $1.16 with Labor at $7. Being a cautious punter I have placed $30 at the 7's. That puts me in a must win position - $59 if the Coalition gets up and $80 if Labor ends up as the government.
For full details of my political speculations see The Portfolio - The Record so Far.

Punters losing faith in the pollsters - the Brexit example

Believe the opinion polls and the punters would have the choices in the UK's Brexit referendum at even money take your pick. For several weeks now there has been nothing between stay and leave in the measurements of public opinion. If anything, leave is ever so slightly in front. But over at the Betfair betting exchange the stay option is the clear favourite.

The punters, probably influenced by the media pundits, clearly have no faith in the predictive power of polls. The memory of how wrong the polls were before the last British general election must be strong.
From my far away distance it just seems strange to me.

Strange gap between polls and betting markets

An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating.

Probability of a Coalition win across betting houses 81.8% up 1.9pp on yesterday #ausvotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/2HIPfMqey6

— Mark the Graph (@Mark_Graph) June 15, 2016

I find the short price about the Coalition a bit strange. By my rough calculation it suggests that the market is guessing that the Turnbull team will end up with a two party vote share somewhere above the 53% mark. The opinion polls meanwhile have the current position near enough to 50:50.

The polls still have the UK's referendum close but the market doesn't

The Economist’s “Brexit” poll-tracker has it close again.

The market doesn't. On Betfair:

In favour of staying in EU $1.23
In favour of leaving EU $5.10

Peter Brent - a twitterer with the courage of his convictions

I don't know why Peter Brent's mumble blog no longer appears on the website of The Australian. Perhaps his commentary was too intelligent and interesting. Whatever. He has not stopped making his insights public on other sites with his twitter site providing the best link to find them.
I particularly like his courage in putting his predictions about the forthcoming election on the record with a list of what he describes as: "Election bets. Worry not, just small amounts. Needless to say, I don't consider a win in each likely, just good odds."

What a pity that the overwhelming majority of political pundits are not prepared to put their pontifications to the test.

At the moment I am cowardly in that majority category - see my piece yesterday Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

Money keeps coming for the Coalition to win Australian election

I look at the signals of a weakening economy show by ABS figures on low wages growth and the decline in the number of hours being worked. I note that the Reserve Bank felt growth stalling to the extent that a further interest rate cut was needed. I see most of the opinion polls now putting Labor in a winning position. But still the market shows the Coalition is a firm and shortening favourite to be returned on 2 July.
William Hill put it this way in a press release earlier in the week:

• Election Betting Watch – 19/05
•  
• Midway through the second week of Election 2016 and the money has poured in for the Coalition to be returned.
• “Punters have backed the Coalition from $1.40 to $1.28 over the first 10 days of the campaign,” a William Hill spokesperson said.
• “One punter has had $40,000 on at $1.30 while we have written a number of other four-figure bets for Malcolm Turnbull to be heading back to the lodge.
• “The polls have certainly been favourable to the Coalition and Australia rarely throws out a government after one-term.”
• The ALP have drifted from $3.30 to $3.60 with little interest in Bill Shorten pulling off a monumental upset.
• Coalition Big Bets
• $40,000 @ $1.30
• $3,000 @ $1.30
• $1,000 @ $1.30
• ALP Big Bets
• There has been little interest in Labor but there was still some action on the ALP.
• $500 @ $3.55
• $400 @ $3.40
• $200 @ $3.70
•  
• https://www.williamhill.com.au/elections/5252054/d/australian-federal-election

To me it doesn't make sense but experience over the years has taught me that the market is hard to beat.
Hence the lack of action by me on this election.

An alternative view to mine on the UK leaving the EU

For a different perspective to mine on the prospective outcome of the UK referendum on whether to leave or stay in the European Union: Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet.
It is an interesting assessment of why the opinion polls I have relied to have my $50 on the Brexit option might not be telling the true story. It concludes thus:

The mood music of the camps

It is fair to say that neither camp has exuded an image of confidence. Remain’s warnings have been shrill, while Leave have issued wild attacks on the integrity of those voicing inconvenient views. Both Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson have been lured into discussing a rerun of the referendum if Remain secures a narrow victory, which suggests that they feel that the campaign is ebbing away from them.

The lack of confidence in both camps and the impression that Leave thinks it is behind can be explained by the two sides’ different aims. Leave wants to get to 50%+1. Remain wants to settle the debate for a generation. It is entirely possible that both will be thwarted in their aim and that both believe that on their own terms they will fail.

If you agree, the 5/6 offered by Ladbrokes that Leave will secure over 44.5% of the vote looks fair value, and I’ve backed this bet. If you’re betting on the main event, anything like 1/4 offered on Remain looks an excellent price and you are unlikely to get much better value in the absence of an unexpected development. Take it.

UK to leave European Union?

The common assumption is that when politicians invoke the name of Hitler they are losing the argument. Perhaps that's one reason why the betting markets point so strongly towards the United Kingdom voting to stay in the European Union.
And there must be other less apparent ones to explain why the Betfair price about staying in Europe is $1.42 with leaving being $3.30 for the opinion polls have things much closer as this poll-of-polls chart from The Economist shows:

Despite weeks of near level pegging in the polls, the market at Betfair on a vote to stay in has hardly changed.

Today's London Sunday Telegraph Hitler reference notwithstanding, that doesn't seem right to me and I hope my investing $50 on a leaving vote is not just because I am looking forward to Boris Johnson throwing the Conservatives into chaos by challenging for the Prime Ministership after a successful crusade for the UK to once again be the saviour of Europe.

A note from my Politicalowl blog:

A prudent Reserve Bank would wait
The monthly official interest game is upon us. And those bank economists who make a living selling their snake-oil opinions think the Reserve Bank board will cut the official rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2%.Well the market, one those bank economists tend to make, tends to agree with them. Here's The Owl's interest rate indicator:
Some how it does not seem right to me. Perhaps an interest rate cut will be necessary but if I was a Reserve Bank board member I would wait see what the government did in its budget before moving.I'll be having a small wager on there being no change tomorrow. 

I am venturing 50 units on no change at $3.

No false modesty here. Late acting on my post!

Click to enlarge

I prefer the explanation that the lads just took some time to act on my post of yesterday.

Anyway there was another modest collect with $82 jumping in which at least put me modestly in front on my interest rate predictions.

The all-time profit on all predictions now stands at $1252.49. (See The portfolio - the record so far for full details).

So far this calendar year we have had a turnover of $700 for a profit of $542).

This blog, as well as being a bit of fun, does have the serious purpose of letting people check my record as a political pundit. I note that not many of me peers are game to keep a score sheet.

.

A little wager on no interest rate change

The retail sales figures from the ABS this morning were stronger than most pundits thought likely, rising 0.7 per cent in February following a strong gain in January. That's enough to persuade me that the market has it wrong in leaning towards a cut in official interest rates this afternoon. Here's the Betfair market as at 12.30pm

Click to enlarge

The 2.64 looks value to me. A suggested 50 units.

Backing Labour's Millliband to become UK Prime Minister

The opinion polls have the UK election at level pegging. The market has the Conservatives at $1.51 to win the most seats. On Betfair David Cameron is $1.75 to continue as Prime Minister after the election with Labour' Ed Milliband at $2.34. To me those odds just don't make sense.
Here is how The Guardian assesses what the current polls would produce:

(Click to enlarge)

Sure the Conservatives by that calculation should be a narrow favourite on the most seats market. But Cameron favourite to continue as PM?
Here is how The Independent assessed things this morning:

Because Labour-held constituencies are smaller than Conservative ones, it is easier for Labour to win most seats. Even though Labour continues to be at risk of heavy losses in Scotland, our latest seat projection puts the party on 293 seats, eighteen ahead of the Conservatives on 275.
With Nick Clegg projected to secure just 16 seats, the Prime Minister would be left with too few allies to be able to sustain a government. The 48 MPs that might be won by the SNP together with their Welsh and Green allies would be able to carry out their threat to block Mr Cameron’s path back to power.

Yet this how the Betfair markets have moved.

Winner of most seats

PM after next election

I already have had a couple of investments on Labour to win the most seats (see Details HERE). But to me the most likely result is a hung parliament and that the Scottish National Party will end up giving the initial nod to Ed Milliband. Hence my 100 unit investment on him at the $2.34.

In the UK I've taken the unders but still an optimist about Labour

Will be turning my attention soon to the UK election.

At the moment I have taken the unders about Labour winning the greatest number of seats, (Details HERE) This from the FT gives me hope that I'm still a better chance than the market suggests

Half of voters still floating, say pollsters - FT.com: "Nearly half of the people certain to vote on May 7 still have not made up their minds who to support, according to polling firms, underlining the acute uncertainty surrounding the tightest general election for decades.
Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos Mori, said that 50 per cent of all adults in the country were still in effect floating voters, according to surveys by his company."



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Backing Malcolm Turnbull

For Tony Abbott it's just going from bad to worse. I cannot see how he will keep his Liberal Party leadership.
I'm suggesting what for me in a major investment. 200 at the currently available $1,46 that Malcolm Turnbull will be Liberal leader at the next federal election.

Oscars Get Political, As Acceptance Speeches Wade Into Social Issues and I Get the Money

I feel a little less guilty now about including the Oscars in my political speculation. And I did get the money with my 100 at $1.70 on Birdman. 

The record of my political bets is at The portfolio - the record so far

Oscars Get Political, As Acceptance Speeches Wade Into Social Issues : NPR:

"At the Academy Awards, many of the big winners were expected — but the ceremony drew energy from their speeches, which addressed a gamut of issues, from equal pay for women to immigration."



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