Backing Malcolm Turnbull

For Tony Abbott it's just going from bad to worse. I cannot see how he will keep his Liberal Party leadership.
I'm suggesting what for me in a major investment. 200 at the currently available $1,46 that Malcolm Turnbull will be Liberal leader at the next federal election.

Oscars Get Political, As Acceptance Speeches Wade Into Social Issues and I Get the Money

I feel a little less guilty now about including the Oscars in my political speculation. And I did get the money with my 100 at $1.70 on Birdman. 

The record of my political bets is at The portfolio - the record so far

Oscars Get Political, As Acceptance Speeches Wade Into Social Issues : NPR:

"At the Academy Awards, many of the big winners were expected — but the ceremony drew energy from their speeches, which addressed a gamut of issues, from equal pay for women to immigration."



'via Blog this'

One for the memory bank

$4.25 on TA to be PM at next election are great odds (MBT $1.40). If it wasn't a conflict I'd throw $1,000 on Abbott for sure at those odds.

— Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) February 22, 2015

Punting on the Oscars - it's Birdman for me

I'm reverting to my normal practice of assuming that the punters don't get the favourite in short enough when betting on elections. Hence 100 on Birdman at $1.70 to be best picture at the Oscars.

Abbott to go and Liberals to win

I am old enough to remember the jubilation in Gough Whitlam's Labor Party the day that Billy Mackie Snedden was finally sacked as leader of the opposition after months of withering attacks by the prime minister. And I recollect believing that the euphoria caused by Gough's "brilliance" would be temporary and disappear with that loss of Labor's best weapon. 

So if I was Bill Shorten today I would be hoping and praying that Tony Abbott survives next week's Liberal party meeting. Malcolm Turnbull has all the credentials to do to him what Malcolm Fraser did to Gough Whitlam.

Not that I think Abbott will survive. Should he escape on Tuesday it will not be for long. He does not have what it takes to run the country and his colleagues know it. They know as well that Shorten is no world beater. With Turnbull as leader taking on Shorten they have a good chance of keeping their seat.

I will be having a modest investment on the Coalition to win the next election -  100 units at $1.89

A little something on interest rates remaining the same

I must say it's fun for those of us who like an occasional flutter on something other than sport that the Reserve Bank has returned its official interest rate setting to the agenda. This afternoon's decision is the first for months in which there has been any value in backing your opinion. This is how the election indicator on my companion site politicalowl.com assesses the probabilities.

Maybe it's just because I want an added satisfaction should the Herald Sun's Terry McCrann prove wrong in his prediction of a rate rise but I'm recommending a little of the $1.73 at Betfair that the bank board decides on no change. 50 units invested.