A note from my Politicalowl blog:

A prudent Reserve Bank would wait
The monthly official interest game is upon us. And those bank economists who make a living selling their snake-oil opinions think the Reserve Bank board will cut the official rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2%.Well the market, one those bank economists tend to make, tends to agree with them. Here's The Owl's interest rate indicator:
Some how it does not seem right to me. Perhaps an interest rate cut will be necessary but if I was a Reserve Bank board member I would wait see what the government did in its budget before moving.I'll be having a small wager on there being no change tomorrow. 

I am venturing 50 units on no change at $3.

No false modesty here. Late acting on my post!

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I prefer the explanation that the lads just took some time to act on my post of yesterday.

Anyway there was another modest collect with $82 jumping in which at least put me modestly in front on my interest rate predictions.

The all-time profit on all predictions now stands at $1252.49. (See The portfolio - the record so far for full details).

So far this calendar year we have had a turnover of $700 for a profit of $542).

This blog, as well as being a bit of fun, does have the serious purpose of letting people check my record as a political pundit. I note that not many of me peers are game to keep a score sheet.

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A little wager on no interest rate change

The retail sales figures from the ABS this morning were stronger than most pundits thought likely, rising 0.7 per cent in February following a strong gain in January. That's enough to persuade me that the market has it wrong in leaning towards a cut in official interest rates this afternoon. Here's the Betfair market as at 12.30pm

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The 2.64 looks value to me. A suggested 50 units.

Backing Labour's Millliband to become UK Prime Minister

The opinion polls have the UK election at level pegging. The market has the Conservatives at $1.51 to win the most seats. On Betfair David Cameron is $1.75 to continue as Prime Minister after the election with Labour' Ed Milliband at $2.34. To me those odds just don't make sense.
Here is how The Guardian assesses what the current polls would produce:

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Sure the Conservatives by that calculation should be a narrow favourite on the most seats market. But Cameron favourite to continue as PM?
Here is how The Independent assessed things this morning:

Because Labour-held constituencies are smaller than Conservative ones, it is easier for Labour to win most seats. Even though Labour continues to be at risk of heavy losses in Scotland, our latest seat projection puts the party on 293 seats, eighteen ahead of the Conservatives on 275.
With Nick Clegg projected to secure just 16 seats, the Prime Minister would be left with too few allies to be able to sustain a government. The 48 MPs that might be won by the SNP together with their Welsh and Green allies would be able to carry out their threat to block Mr Cameron’s path back to power.

Yet this how the Betfair markets have moved.

Winner of most seats

PM after next election

I already have had a couple of investments on Labour to win the most seats (see Details HERE). But to me the most likely result is a hung parliament and that the Scottish National Party will end up giving the initial nod to Ed Milliband. Hence my 100 unit investment on him at the $2.34.

In the UK I've taken the unders but still an optimist about Labour

Will be turning my attention soon to the UK election.

At the moment I have taken the unders about Labour winning the greatest number of seats, (Details HERE) This from the FT gives me hope that I'm still a better chance than the market suggests

Half of voters still floating, say pollsters - FT.com: "Nearly half of the people certain to vote on May 7 still have not made up their minds who to support, according to polling firms, underlining the acute uncertainty surrounding the tightest general election for decades.
Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos Mori, said that 50 per cent of all adults in the country were still in effect floating voters, according to surveys by his company."



'via Blog this'

Backing Malcolm Turnbull

For Tony Abbott it's just going from bad to worse. I cannot see how he will keep his Liberal Party leadership.
I'm suggesting what for me in a major investment. 200 at the currently available $1,46 that Malcolm Turnbull will be Liberal leader at the next federal election.

Oscars Get Political, As Acceptance Speeches Wade Into Social Issues and I Get the Money

I feel a little less guilty now about including the Oscars in my political speculation. And I did get the money with my 100 at $1.70 on Birdman. 

The record of my political bets is at The portfolio - the record so far

Oscars Get Political, As Acceptance Speeches Wade Into Social Issues : NPR:

"At the Academy Awards, many of the big winners were expected — but the ceremony drew energy from their speeches, which addressed a gamut of issues, from equal pay for women to immigration."



'via Blog this'

One for the memory bank

$4.25 on TA to be PM at next election are great odds (MBT $1.40). If it wasn't a conflict I'd throw $1,000 on Abbott for sure at those odds.

— Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) February 22, 2015

Punting on the Oscars - it's Birdman for me

I'm reverting to my normal practice of assuming that the punters don't get the favourite in short enough when betting on elections. Hence 100 on Birdman at $1.70 to be best picture at the Oscars.

Abbott to go and Liberals to win

I am old enough to remember the jubilation in Gough Whitlam's Labor Party the day that Billy Mackie Snedden was finally sacked as leader of the opposition after months of withering attacks by the prime minister. And I recollect believing that the euphoria caused by Gough's "brilliance" would be temporary and disappear with that loss of Labor's best weapon. 

So if I was Bill Shorten today I would be hoping and praying that Tony Abbott survives next week's Liberal party meeting. Malcolm Turnbull has all the credentials to do to him what Malcolm Fraser did to Gough Whitlam.

Not that I think Abbott will survive. Should he escape on Tuesday it will not be for long. He does not have what it takes to run the country and his colleagues know it. They know as well that Shorten is no world beater. With Turnbull as leader taking on Shorten they have a good chance of keeping their seat.

I will be having a modest investment on the Coalition to win the next election -  100 units at $1.89

A little something on interest rates remaining the same

I must say it's fun for those of us who like an occasional flutter on something other than sport that the Reserve Bank has returned its official interest rate setting to the agenda. This afternoon's decision is the first for months in which there has been any value in backing your opinion. This is how the election indicator on my companion site politicalowl.com assesses the probabilities.

Maybe it's just because I want an added satisfaction should the Herald Sun's Terry McCrann prove wrong in his prediction of a rate rise but I'm recommending a little of the $1.73 at Betfair that the bank board decides on no change. 50 units invested.

A Queensland Opportunity and I'm risking a little on Labor

A state election on 31 January - something to put some interest into the silly season for political junkies. And, methinks, an opportunity.
I have no inside information but I am puzzled that the bookies have the Queensland LNP Government as short as they are this evening. The pollsters put it at 50:50.
I'm starting my betting with 100 units on Labor at the generally available $3.80