Betting against President Sarkozy in France

Some strong showings in recent opinion polls by the French far-right National Front suggest that Nicolas Sarkozy is far from a certainty to make the final run-off election for the French presidency.
The Ifop-Fiducial survey taken between 9 and 12 January showed the Front's Marie Le Pen within two percentage points of Sarkozy with both behind the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in the predicted first round of voting.

In its measurement of a likely second round contest between Sarkkozy and Hollande the lead for the Socialist challenger over the incumbent was a considerable 14 points.

Given that Sarkozy has to pull off the double of coming either first or second in the first round of polling and then win the run-off laying him at the 35.5% assessment on Intrade looks good value to me and I'll be taking some of it.