The ground swell for Kevin disappearing?

I'm not prepared to risk my own money yet but the momentum seems to be in Julia Gillard's favour at the moment for her to lead Labo at the next election.
The political speculator's diary:

The betting record so far

A modest profit so far.
Total outlay on concluded events $1,167.40 for winnings of $315.70
Current bets outstanding total $936.80 leaving a cash balance available of $378.90
You will find details of all wagers at the portfolio page.

Backing Obama

If the consensus of the pollsters is anywhere near right then Barack Obama should be a very short priced favourite to remain president of the United States. The Real Clear Politics average of all the current poll polls has him 3.5 points clear of Mitt Romney with Gallup putting the lead at a massive seven points.
On my rough calculation that would make him a better than 80% chance yet while Obama has been shortening on the Crikey Presidential Election Indicator in the last few days the market is providing much better value than that.

It's time, methinks, to open the wallet and risk a little of my own hard earned.
I've taken the 63.7% available at Intrade.
For anyone interested you will find a record of my little political bets on my web The Political Speculator.

A Syrian tip from Robert Fisk

The United Nations has finally admitted its impotence in the affairs of Syria by withdrawing its military observers so information about what is actually happening in that country's civil war will now be even less. Perhaps the closest we outsiders can get to a form guide is the view of that veteran reporter on the Middle East Robert Fisk.
In The Independent on Sunday this morning Fisk writes:

That view seems to make sense and encourages me to again back the dictator - in this case that Bashar-Al-Assad will still be president of Syria at the end of the year.

Invested $54.30 for a potential win of $45.70.

The punting record so far - an update

As at 9 May 2012 the portfolio is showing a profit since starting in mid November of $236.90 on its $1000 bank. 
There is another $69 of profit to come when the selection of Mitt Romney as the Republican  candidate becomes official.
Full details of these and other bets are here.

Going for a reduction again

The low producer price index figures from the ABS this morning have encouraged me to venture again into the Reserve Bank official interest rate market. Have moved ahead of tomorrow's consumer price index release to suggest $50 at Betfair's $1.34

Backing no interest rate change

 The expected speculation about an interest rate cut is underway as expected before the Australian Reserve Bank Board meeting on the first Tuesday of every month. One bank pundit on Friday put the odds of a 0.25 percentage point cut at 50:50 but traders have a vested interest in promoting a contest as exciting.

That 50:50 split seems a bit high to me. I expect the Reserve Bank will do the prudent thing and wait until it sees that the federal government actually delivers its promised tough budget before making a decision.

And the Crikey Interest Rate Indicator agrees.

I recommend taking some of the $1.54 available on Betfair about there being no change.