Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Newt just keeps getting shorter - time to bet

Newt Gingrich has shortened so much in the betting for the Republican choice as presidential candidate that the time has come to act. Take your choice and either back Mitt Romney or lay the Newt. I've done a little of both.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Republican presidential nominee - market largely ignores the polls

The opinion pollsters have the choice of the Republican candidate a close run thing. The Real Clear Politics summary of the major pollsters has Mitt Romney just the favoured choice of voters from Newt Gingrich with Herman Cain also well favoured. Yet the markets have Romney well clear with Cain an absolute outsider.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Labour in UK suited by the conditions

The unemployment numbers out in Britain this week show economic conditions are getting worse and the Governor of the Bank of England sees little prospect of any improvement for at least a year. Not the conditions, I would have thought, where the market should have a government favourite to be returned.
I've had a little dabble on Labour to be the biggest party after the next election in the belief that there will be an opportunity soon enough to take a profit without waiting for the parliament to run its full course.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Taking the shorts in New Zealand

In my experience the good things are normally not short enough in bookmakers' markets and thus worth a flutter as election day draws closer. Hence the $1.08 about the Nationals providing the Prime Minister after this month's New Zealand election looks like value to me.

I'm backing Julia

By my calculations the real price of Labor winning the next election in Australia is under the $3 mark. The $3.50 available at Sportsbet should be taken.
But don't expect go get set for much. These are very fragile markets.
And over at Centrebet the $2.60 about Julia Gillard leading Labor at the time of the next election looks generous.

Laying Newt Gingrich

I cannot believe that any party would seriously consider Newt Gingrich is its best chance of winning its presidential election. Yet the multiple adulterer just keeps getting shorter in the betting as the potential Republican candidate.
Something is wrong here.
I know that good Christian Americans are suspicious of Mormons but surely they will baulk at giving Gingrich the nod when it finally comes to casting a vote in a primary. Surely in the end they will realise that a so far untarnished family man in Mitt Romney is better than an acknowledged family values hypocrite.
Laying Gingrich - betting that he will not get the nomination - has got to be THE BET of the presidential primaries period.
The time to strike is not far off..

Monday, November 14, 2011

Taking a tip from the San Francisco fed

The form on this contest has been done by none other than the boffins at the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. They have studied their tea leaves and determined that the odds are greater than 50% that the USA will experience a recession sometime early in 2012.
So when I see that on Intrade the mob reckon that the chances are only 38% I reckon it's worth backing the opinion of the bankers for a little hit.